Martingale Simulator: How Often Does Doubling Down Blow an Account?
This free martingale simulator runs hundreds of random trading sequences and compares doubling the stake after every loss with risking the same amount on every trade. Change the win rate, reward-to-risk and balance to see how often each method blows the account.
Martingale (double after a loss)
Accounts blown: -
Median final balance: -
Longest losing streak seen: -
Fixed risk (same $ every trade)
Accounts blown: -
Median final balance: -
Average max drawdown: -
20 sample runs, same random trades for both methods:martingalefixed risk
An account counts as blown when the next trade’s risk is larger than the remaining balance. Every run uses new random trades, so results change a little each time. Spreads and commissions are ignored. Educational simulation, not a prediction.
How to Use the Simulator
- Starting balance and first trade risk set the size of the account and of the base bet. Martingale doubles that risk after every loss and goes back to it after a win.
- Win rate and reward : risk describe the strategy. 50% and 1 means a coin flip with equal wins and losses.
- Trades per run is how long each account trades; number of runs is how many accounts are simulated.
- Press Run simulation again to draw new random trades. Both methods always face the same sequence of wins and losses, so the comparison is fair.
What the Results Show
With the default settings, a $5,000 account risking $50 on the first trade can survive six losses in a row under martingale: $50 + $100 + $200 + $400 + $800 + $1,600 = $3,150 lost. The seventh trade would need $3,200 with only $1,850 left, so the account is finished.
How likely is a streak of seven losses? With a 50% win rate, the probability of at least one such streak is about 32% in 100 trades and about 86% in 500 trades. Even with a 60% win rate it is about 39% over 500 trades. That is why the simulator usually shows most martingale accounts blown over a long run, while the fixed-risk accounts drift around their starting balance and survive.
Martingale’s median result can even look good over a short run, because most sequences end with a small profit. The problem is the tail: the rare streak that wipes out everything. Read the full explanation in our martingale strategy guide.
Why Fixed Risk Survives
With a fixed risk of $50 on a $5,000 account (1%), even 20 losses in a row cost $1,000, a 20% drawdown. The account can absorb the bad streaks that are normal over hundreds of trades. To turn a fixed risk into a lot size for any pair, use the forex position size calculator.
Limits of This Simulation
- Trades are independent with a fixed win rate; real strategies have changing win rates and clustered losses, which usually makes martingale worse.
- Spreads, commissions, swaps and slippage are ignored.
- Margin limits are not modeled. Under US 50:1 leverage, large martingale positions often cannot be opened at all before the balance runs out.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does martingale ever work in forex?
It produces many small wins, but with any finite account a long enough losing streak eventually appears and causes a loss far larger than all the small wins combined.
What if I use a higher win rate strategy?
A higher win rate makes long losing streaks rarer, but not impossible. Over hundreds of trades, the simulator shows that blow-ups still happen; they just come later.
Is the anti-martingale approach safer?
Increasing size after wins and cutting it after losses keeps losses small during bad streaks, so it is far less likely to blow an account. It still needs a fixed maximum risk per trade.
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